Forget the irrelevant inventory accumulation... pardon... GDP number. The real news today is coming from Egypt, where history is currently being made and a regime is in the process of being overthrown despite the unprecedented country-wide internet shutdown. The fallout from today's riots will be momentous. Follow all the news in real time from Al Jazeera.
Friday, January 28, 2011
Follow The Egyptian Revolution Live Via Al Jazeera
Thursday, January 27, 2011
Egyptian Stock Market Plunges Over 11% To Fresh Multi-Year Lows; Is A Suez Canal Transit Halt Imminent?Submitted by Tyler Durden on 01/27/2011 07:41 -0500
Ever wanted to see what a market plunge looks like into a revolution-inspired bidless open? Look no further than Egypt: after being halted briefly earlier, the market is now in freefall, dropping 11% in the span of minutes. This brings the two day drop to over 16%, and brings the EGX30 to the lowest level since 2009. Egyptian CDS have surged over 10% to 385 mid, a jump of 40 bps on the day. Anyone who purchased protection on the riot-torn country after we first suggested it is about to roll this weekend, congratulations. And while the important part of the world may ignore what is happening in Egypt, after all it is not US banker money thay is being lost, they may want to consider this: according to reports, there has been live fire in Suez, where the police headquarters have been taken over. More importantly, according to the Guardian, we may see the first army insubordination in this city: "a lawyer and executive director for the Arabic Network for Human Rights Information, has tweeted that some army units in Suez are refusing to support the crackdown against the people." Which means the government may be about to lose control over Suez... And the Suez Canal.
While the Fed refuses to extract its head from deep within the sand of ignorant hubris that only a career in Ivy League education can provide, the world continues to burn, in many places quite literally. For all those who are finding it hard to juggle all the rioting, and confuse their Cairos with their Calcuttas, below we present an interactive map disclosing all recent documented food price hikes, protests, and riots.
Wednesday, January 26, 2011
Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Faber Sees 10% Drop in S&P 500, Says Stocks ExpensiveJanuary 25, 2011, 4:47 PM EST
MORE FROM BUSINESSWEEK
By Rita Nazareth and Carol Massar
(Updates with details of previous forecasts.)
Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Marc Faber, who said owning U.S. stocks would prove profitable in March 2009 before the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index began a 91 percent advance, predicted today that the gauge may drop 10 percent because too many investors are bullish.
“A correction is coming,” Faber said in an interview from Zurich with Carol Massar and Matt Miller on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” “Equities in the U.S. will go down less than emerging markets.” He forecast a drop of as much as 30 percent for equities in developing countries.
The MSCI Emerging Markets Index has increased 134 percent from March 9, 2009. Equities gained as central banks kept interest rates near record lows and governments spent trillions of dollars to spur growth. On Nov. 3, the Federal Reserve said it would buy an additional $600 billion of Treasuries through June to prevent deflation.
Faber said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on March 9, 2009, that it was “very difficult to see a scenario where you wouldn’t make any money” owning stocks over the next 10 years, while also warning the S&P 500 might lose 26 percent before the bear market ended.
The benchmark gauge for American equities began its biggest advance in five decades that day, climbing from 676.53 to 1,295.02 on Jan. 18, 2011.
In March 2007, he said the S&P 500 was more likely to fall than rise because the threats of faster inflation and slower growth persisted. The S&P 500 then climbed 10 percent to a record 1,565.15 seven months later, and ended the year up 3.5 percent.
Faber, who publishes the Gloom, Boom and Doom report, reiterated his views from a Dec. 30 interview with Bloomberg News when he said that U.S. Treasury bonds are a “suicidal” investment and are likely to decline in the long-term.
After bottoming in December 2008, the 10-year Treasury yield rose as high as 3.9859 percent in April on government measures to stimulate the economy. Concern about a second recession in three years sent yields lower through October. Treasuries rose today, pushing yields on 30-year bonds down the most this year, on speculation President Barack Obama will propose a five-year freeze of non-security discretionary spending to help cap record deficits.
“Treasuries are the best place for the next 10 days,” Faber said. “Not for the longer-term”
--With assistance from Matt Miller in New York. Editor: Chris Nagi
To contact the reporters on this story: Rita Nazareth in New York at firstname.lastname@example.org; Carol Massar at email@example.com
When we reported three days ago that 59 outbound shipments of gold were intercepted at the Egypt airport, we predicted that the country's oligarchs were proactively preparing precisely for what they knew is coming imminently. It has arrived. From Al-Jazeera: "Hundreds of protesters have begun to take to the streets in Cairo, the Egyptian capital, chanting slogans against the police, the interior minister and the government, in scenes that the capital has not seen since the 1970s, Al Jazeera's correspondent reported.Downtown Cairo has come to a standstill, and protesters are now marching towards the headquarters of the ruling National Democracy Party. "It is unprecedented for security forces to let people march like this without trying to stop them," Al Jazeera's Rawya Rageh reported from the site of the protest."