The VIX was basically a two days affair as someone sold into it although markets were declining - since this is a trading recommendation of GS some of their folks might have done this. Nevertheless it proves my assumption that we need a final trough down in the 15/6 area before we can challenge the 30 level and even break it. The likely time frame for this to happen is from mid Feb to very early March and should be followed by a sustained decline of stocks over months and respectively rising VIX . Before we should see another brief attempt up as the whole count should play out in 5 waves and we are about to end wave 4 down which should be followed by a final wave 5 higher to test the 28 level at least. Stocks have defended their support levels for now and today will show if that was a substantial move yesterday or just a regular counter-swing.
Tuesday, February 2, 2010
VIX update - general market update
The VIX was basically a two days affair as someone sold into it although markets were declining - since this is a trading recommendation of GS some of their folks might have done this. Nevertheless it proves my assumption that we need a final trough down in the 15/6 area before we can challenge the 30 level and even break it. The likely time frame for this to happen is from mid Feb to very early March and should be followed by a sustained decline of stocks over months and respectively rising VIX . Before we should see another brief attempt up as the whole count should play out in 5 waves and we are about to end wave 4 down which should be followed by a final wave 5 higher to test the 28 level at least. Stocks have defended their support levels for now and today will show if that was a substantial move yesterday or just a regular counter-swing.
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