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Sunday, January 11, 2009

NDX - market outlook

The NDX monthly chart shows a 20 year trend line hold for now but we are not at the low yet. Since very clearly we have entered wave 5 down after wave 4 up was almost a perfect 38.2% retracement. So at some point this year . The 5th wave should at least test the lows of wave 3, which is the 2002/3 low around 750. Actually the magnitude of wave 1 down is the minimum we should make - that gives a target of 250. Interestingly as Jupiter moved into Aquarius we should have some technical quantum leaps as we had 12 years ago in the Internet - only this time in a different area rather more in Gen technology and or Nano-technıology.
MOST LIKELY 2ND HALF AND RATHER 4TH QUARTER NDX WILL DROP BELOW THE TRENDLINE.
As you can see the MACD monthly is just dropping below 0 and is not at extremes at all so far. furthermore we see the market staying below the 200 month MA which is a crucial statement regarding basic trend and we saw a few weeks ago the 50 week MA move below the 200 week MA which is usually followed by a steep sell off within a year.

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