The weekly SPX chart shows that we are testing the 2002 lows were yesterday even lower but today's rise was as indicated earlier a pure option expiration play as the SPX closed exactly at 800!! The weekly count is at 10 with a green 2 which implies more downside and time, we need at least another 2 down weeks to complete this pattern but I guess it will even be more tricky as we have a daily 11 and as soon as we have that 13 we should expect a snap back rally early Dec and new lows thereafter. In any case the market needs a solution for Citi as they will make the markets nervous if another Lehman can occur. This time the FED will have no excuse not to bail them out as they are too big by all means to fail. The commodity prices and oil should bottom out very soon within 2 weeks which will bolster the market. Today's volume was high but expiration days tend to be higher anyway. Next week will be interesting as we have a short week due to TG and the 28th is a shorter trading day but at the same time its the day for window dressing - month end and broker year end for their books. Hence we might see price manipulation as volume will be thin anyway it easy to print prices higher which might be of interest for funds and Hedge Funds anyway.
Friday, November 21, 2008
SPX technical update - market wrap up
The weekly SPX chart shows that we are testing the 2002 lows were yesterday even lower but today's rise was as indicated earlier a pure option expiration play as the SPX closed exactly at 800!! The weekly count is at 10 with a green 2 which implies more downside and time, we need at least another 2 down weeks to complete this pattern but I guess it will even be more tricky as we have a daily 11 and as soon as we have that 13 we should expect a snap back rally early Dec and new lows thereafter. In any case the market needs a solution for Citi as they will make the markets nervous if another Lehman can occur. This time the FED will have no excuse not to bail them out as they are too big by all means to fail. The commodity prices and oil should bottom out very soon within 2 weeks which will bolster the market. Today's volume was high but expiration days tend to be higher anyway. Next week will be interesting as we have a short week due to TG and the 28th is a shorter trading day but at the same time its the day for window dressing - month end and broker year end for their books. Hence we might see price manipulation as volume will be thin anyway it easy to print prices higher which might be of interest for funds and Hedge Funds anyway.
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