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Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Get a grip on where we are in GDP terms last 8 years

Remember this are the official numbers which are severely overstated the last chart shows the old inflation model whic matches the real situation. The point is that the difference is obviously not going away but inflations therefor the growth rate of the GDP, hence the GDP numbers are far too high. Goldman and others expect a contraction of - 5% for Q4 which will bring the whole year into a serious contraction. 2009 will be a disaster year but will see a great push by enormous government spending at some point which is not sustainable and comes at a high price as all the debt increases are a big burden and will at some point trigger a crash in bond markets.

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Why Investors Care
[Chart] Real GDP growth is always quoted at a quarterly annual rate. It measures how much the economy has grown over a three-month period. Quarterly growth rates are often volatile; consequently, economists also like to look at the year-over-year growth in GDP. The yearly changes tend to be more stable.
Data Source: Haver Analytics
[Chart] It is common to compare quarterly changes at annual rates in the GDP deflator. These can be volatile, just like the quarterly swings in real GDP growth; as a result, the trend in inflation is better determined by year- over- year changes.
Data Source: Haver Analytics

Alternate CPI Chart

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