THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Dollar Index technical outlook and its market implications

The Dollar Index weekly chart shows a classic consolidation pattern as it has a daily SEQ 13, which you can not see here but in a week (green setup) 6. You see that the countdonwn (red) is at a 9 and needs to complete the 13 weekly count to have a severe top, which will be around the old highs you see left hand in the 90/2 area.

Also, the Gold chart confirms that from another view, since it needs to drop to the 650 area going forward. Expect a few days more consolidation hence the European Central Banks will cut rates tomorrow. That the Dollar İndex will climb higher is also a reference for the stock markets to retreat soon, by the way. The timing matches pretty much the time frame we might need for the equity retreat of 3-4 weeks as well. More so that will be relevant for commodities in general as they do not have the bottom yet. Currencies have the attitude to carry trends into year end extremes once they are rolling.

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