THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, November 14, 2008

CRB technical outlook - red alert - indication for a low very soon

The CRB index weekly counts a 12 (as the BKX does) with the daily having counted a daily 13 double (SEQ and Combo). That is a powerful combination and indicates a low for commodities is very close - hence it also will be for material stocks. This is a sector with big weight in the indices and Crude having a weekly 11 will follow soon with a bottom. Two of the biggest heavy weight sectors in the SPX are about to make a bottom. Those are signals to start accumulating in any case to cover shorts - thereby it is necessary to figure out what stocks are most suitable. We will have a look into that on the WE. In CRB terms, a 38% retracement equals 100 points up roughly to 350 the least would be to 300. That would give commodity biased countries like Australia and Brazil a special momentum - Russia is cheap but unreliable as they open and close their exchange to their liking, which is not a prudent way to deal with investors. Russia's BRIC state status has expired and the risk is great that you never get out once your in - that's a pity as it would be a bargain when oil turns around.

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