THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, November 7, 2008

CRB Index coming closer to its lows (wave A)

The CRB daily chart is, as expected, on its final leg down in this bigger wave and will be followed by a sharp correction. We have entered month 5 down and as a 'standard procedure' (not 100%) that should bring a at least a 25% correction but 38% is also likely. Probably forming a severe low anyway but the price action hints to wave A. It needs to drop below 250 to complete daily counts as well as the weekly 13. That should happen within 2-3 weeks. The 240 (not fixed yet) magnitude would bring a 60, respectively 95 point rally. We will get that more detailed as we have set the bottom. Astonishingly, within this commodity crash within 5 months was no correction at all so far and we do not have a 5 wave count, rather more a ABC wave. We are still in wave A down, hence the B wave up could have even a bigger magnitude as the earlier mentioned one. It looks like all markets act in sync these days as it derives basically form deleveraging, as one can also see from the carry trade currencies.

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