THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

VIX technical outlook - market wrap-up

The early high at 81 was a misprint for the VIX - but I have seen that a few times. Those kind of misprints are like hidden signals - they show up at some point. Today we closed at almost 70, which is 20 points up from yesterday's lows but the prio drop was a manipulation down and we had a very low volume market but huge open interest in VIX options for OCT, so someone made good money the last days.

Anyway, our scenario unfolds and we will see the 80 once again before we will get a bigger relief rally in stocks. The first crucial level will be the 13 daily count, which is one indication but, more importantly, will be the price action. The NDX tested the 1200 level a third time and usually that does not hold. The SPX was briefly below the triangle pattern but (PPT or whoever bought it up the last minutes) prevented a confirmed breakout. Volume picked up quite a bit today but not close to the record levels of the last 2 weeks. AMZN is heading for the 40 target after hours after disappointing earnings trading at 44 and AMGN surprising to the upside trading 3 $ higher after hours. Important as a basic momentum to the downside is the expected weakness in financials -that should continue the next days.


In the finance hearing, they quoted a Moody's employee saying that "they sold their souls to the devil" - that is close to how it turns out these days - only that regular people have to go through hell because some CEOs (mostly bankers) wanted to cruise in bigger yachts.

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I am a professional independent trader