THE DOT - if this turns orange or red be alert

Friday, October 31, 2008

GDP of yesterday is too high - Obama's possible choices to replace Paulson are not good

Yesterdays GDP of -0.3 was blown up by 3 factors:

1. Permanently understated inflation blows up the GDP per se
2. The numbers included basically JULY/AUGUST, as September turmoil will be added in the next adjustment the number is going to worsen
3. We had unusual high government spending that quarter (weapons for Iraq), which is not the quality of economic action one wants to see

Excerpt:
US Economy Is 'Deeply Worrisome': Fed's Yellen

Reuters | 30 Oct 2008 | 04:22 PM ET

Recent trends in the U.S. economy are "deeply worrisome" at a time damage from the credit crunch has outpaced the Federal Reserve's huge interest rate cuts, a top Fed policy-maker said Thursday.

Janet Yellen, San Francisco Federal Reserve President
CNBC.com

Janet Yellen, president of the San Francisco Fed, was the first Fed official to speak after Thursday's news that the U.S. economy contracted in the third quarter, and she suggested the worst was yet to come.

"For the fourth quarter, it appears likely that the economy is contracting significantly," Yellen told a University of California housing symposium in Berkeley, California.

"The mortgage meltdown is far from over (and) the economy and financial markets are still reeling from it." Most private-sector borrowing rates are higher now than at the start of the financial crisis in August 2007, despite "some of the most momentous steps in decades" from the Fed, she noted.

Paulson or the Treasury as MARC FABER said absolutely rightfully work for Goldman but when I read the possible candidates of Sen Obama - I have to say the 'change' motto is not for real

Excerpt from WSJ

Sen. Obama's possible picks include former Clinton Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers, Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner and former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker. Sen. McCain has mentioned both former eBay Inc. Chief Executive Officer Meg Whitman and Cisco Systems Inc. CEO John Chambers as possibilities. Other possibilities include World Bank President Robert Zoellick, Merrill Lynch & Co. CEO John Thain and John Taylor, a Stanford University economist and McCain economic adviser.

90 % of these guys are as much lobbyists for Wall Street as Paulson - they would not bring any change at all. I hope the WSJ writer is wrong but when I see who his advisors are, I am afraid it is close. Not that McCain would do any better - these days polticans are owned by the establishment, but Obama's maxime is "change" and he might not deliver what he promised. I hope sincerely I am wrong on that call.

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